Now that we have included Splunk in our survey universe for 2.5 years, we can finally offer forward-looking revenue forecasts based on our linear regression model. We have 42 statistically significant regression results that qualify for our Tier classification system. We track Splunk quite well among 13 significant respondent / customer pools, but Financials/Insurance respondents within the Analytics / B.I. / Big Data sector is the singular best way to track Splunk in our work.
ETR Median CY15/CY14 Revenue Forecast: 45.23% this utilizes sellside consensus estimates for Q4CY14 revenues as actuals
If we isolate to only regression results and revenues forecasts from the Analytics / B.I. / Big Data sector, ETR’s median CY15/CY14 revenue forecast is 48.9%.
Sellside Consensus Revenue Estimate CY15/CY14: 33.02% buyside likely anticipates =>40% up to 50%
There's a re-platforming of enterprise technology1 taking place that will create a vendor new world order in enterprise technology over the next 12 - 24 months. Yes, this had already begun prior to 2015, but the rate of which has accelerated to unprecedented levels and is bolstered by a heavy tailwind of bullish enterprise IT spending intentions causing wildly positive correlations among the disruptors and the supporters of the disruptive. Vendors native, aligned and born from open source, Hadoop, hybrid cloud, SaaS, containerization, visualization / analytics, advanced malware / targeted APT will flourish more this calendar year than we have previously seen. Inversely, as much as we have already witnessed a negative effect on the legacy vendors as enterprise technology has shifted off-premise, the worst is likely yet to come this year and next. We view Splunk as a catalyst for, and a leader in, the enterprise technology vendor new world order - which is still taking shape.
Please take a moment to view the slides from the downloadable pdf, as we have intentionally included multiple examples of where particular vendors are winning and/or losing together (e.g. High positive correlation between Splunk Adoption and Increase indications within Analytics AND Cloudera Adoption and Increase indications or Splunk Adoption and Increase indications over 3 years AND Teradata's deceleration among these respondents over the 3 years). CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE 21 PAGE SPLUNK PDF
42 regression results appear in Tiers 2-3 (Analytics / B.I. / Big Data: 10, Information Security: 32). Splunk regression results cannot qualify for Tier 1 at this point, as one of the requirements to qualify for Tier 1 is observation windows =>3 years.
- Analytics / B.I. / Big Data: Financials/Insurance (Tier 2), International, Large Financials/Insurance (Tier 3).
- All cuts are up y/y. International has a 2015 Net score of 92.9% and is up 108.9% from APR14. The 2015 Net scores from the Financials/Insurance, International and Large Financials/Insurance respondent pools are the highest we have ever recorded for Splunk within Analytics / B,I. / Big Data.
- Highest 2015 Net score within the Analytics / B.I. / Big Data sector among the Financials/Insurance, International and Large Financials/Insurance respondent pools (>= 10 citations).
- Among Financials/Insurance respondents, 1 of only 2 vendors to increase market share y/y and vs. APR13. Tableau is the other.
- Information Security: ENM, Large, Large North America, North America, USA (Tier 2), All, BIG 61, Holy Trinity, IT/TelCo, Midsize & SMB (Tier 3).
- Highest Net score we have ever recorded for Splunk in InfoSec among Holy Trinity respondents; 85% 2015 Net score.
- 2nd Highest 2015 Net score in InfoSec among Holy Trinity respondents - lagging only Palo Alto Networks.
- All regression results are forecasting CY15/CY14 revenues above consensus sellside estimates
- If we isolate to only regression results and revenues forecasts from the Analytics / B.I. / Big Data sector, ETR’s median CY15/CY14 revenue forecast is 48.9%.
- We have more regression results for Splunk that qualify for our Tier classification system than we do for Tableau and ServiceNow combined.
Hadoop Analysis (based on JAN15 data):
- Splunk has a 2015 Net score of 100% among respondents that indicated they're Adopting a Hadoop-related vendor within the Analytics / B.I. / Big Data sector (Hadoop-related vendors in the Analytics / B.I. / Big Data sector: (1) Cloudera, (2) Hortonworks, (3) MapR, (4) GoodData, (5) PivotalAnalytics, and (6) SAS).
- Splunk has a 96% 2015 Net score among respondents that indicated they're Adopting or Increasing spend with a Hadoop-related vendor within the Analytics / B.I. / Big Data sector.
From the Quick Takes on January 23, 2015: Splunk, On a y/y perspective, Splunk continues to gain respondents and see its net score accelerate within Information Security, which is now up +9pts y/y to a 65% net score on 72 respondents with a 17% adoption rate. Within Analytics / B.I. (n=86), Splunk still has a strong trajectory of 60%, however, that score is down 1pt y/y, but Splunk continues to gain new clients as it has a 14% adoption rate in Analytics / B.I. This is the first survey we can now provide forward looking revenue forecasts as we have now been tracking Splunk long enough (2.5yrs+) to qualify for our Linear Regression Model. As such, we cannot speak to CY4Q14, but ETR’s CY15/CY14 median rev forecast is expecting growth of +45.23% vs. cons of 33.02%. Of the 42 regression results that qualify for tiers 1-3, not a single one is forecasting below 40.69%.